4th & Game

The Easiest and Most Misunderstood Call in Football

Charles P. Pierce, a fantastic writer for Esquire and a Staff Writer for Grantland, called it "inexplicable."  I've read other columns where writers, who apparently have no time to come up with original titles, called it "Fourth and Five-Gate."  What was it?  A call by Patriots Coach Bill Belichick on a 4th & 5 in the fourth quarter of the Patriots' game this Sunday.

I'm sure you know what happened next; Tom Brady dropped back and was sacked/fumbled and the Broncos took over in good field position with Peyton Manning looking like the Manning of old and ready to ram the ball down the Patriots throat.  I'm sure you also know the Patriots' defense, and in particular Rob Ninkovich, stepped up and forced a Willis McGahee fumble and ran out the clock, thus ensuring the Patriots victory.

Why are the uproar about the fourth down call?

"Because the Patriots gave the Broncos the ball in good field position."

"Because you don't go for it on fourth and medium."

"Because the Patriots could have pinned the Broncos down near their own game line."

These are all valid points... these are all stupid points.

Anybody watching that game could tell you the Patriots were running (literally and figuratively) roughshod over the Broncos: they amassed the most first downs in Patriots history, Wes Welker looked like Wes Welker and was practically impossible to cover on Sunday, and the running backs were just as unstoppable including a conversion on 3rd & 17... on a RUN... by DANNY WOODHEAD.

What about that previous paragraph made you feel uneasy about the Patriots' chances of converting that fourth down?

If you were having flashbacks of the infamous 4th & 2 against the Colts and Peyton Manning I can empathize with you a little bit, but the call was right that day (and I still believe Kevin Faulk was given a crappy spot) and the call to go for it on Sunday was the right one as well.

Just two weeks ago Ron Rivera of the Panthers elected to not go for it on 4th & 1 in a game against the still undefeated Falcons.  This, despite Cam Netwon gaining the yardage for the first on 3rd & 2 (he fumbled, hence the 4th & 1) on the previous play.  And even though he got the best result possible out of the punt (the ball being downed at the Falcons' one yard line) they still went on to lose the game.

When you have an offensive juggernaut like the Patriots, or a running juggernaut like the Panthers (21 of 24 in 3rd and 4th & shorts) and you have a chance to ice the game with your offense, you go ahead and you do it.  Why leave it up to risk ("Risk" being any NFL Defense in the offensive haven that is now the NFL) when you can end the game with one play, with one yard (or in the Patriots offense's case, five yards, which might as well have been one with the way they were moving it Sunday)?

The media loves to grill coaches who do not do the "safe thing" and instead go for it on fourth and short.  They will point to those very same Falcons and their proclivity for going for it on fourth down and how it may have cost them a postseason game against the Giants.  Or New England media might point to the 4th & 2 against the Colts and say they lost the game on that play (coincidentally forgetting that Manning was sawing his way through the Patriots defense in the second half like a Civil Way surgeon; bloody and relentless).

The only thing playing it safe does is give the coach an excuse for why he did not go for it.  Go into any locker room and ask, "I'll give you one chance this game where all you have to do is gain one yard and I will guarantee a win, would you take it?"  Guess what percentage of players will nod their heads and say, "hell yeah, let's go..."  Thought it over?  Good, if you guessed 100% you get a gold star.

Look at any win probability metric and they will tell you the reward outweighed the risks when it came to going for it on all of those fourth down decisions ("You mean reward equal win and risk equal only slightly less chance of win, Mongo go for it.")  However, even if you are not one to look up win metrics and "win probability" is something you scoff at, think of this, "if you had a chance to keep the ball out of Peyton Manning's hands and win the game, would you do it?"

Now let's see if you get another gold star...